Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,781$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(4.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,112.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(52,112.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,339$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(577 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,151.0}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,151.0\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,711$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $220,325$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215,594.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(215,594.0\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $25,857$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,913.3}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.8)}}\) (asimptote \(24,913.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $68,466$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $214,457$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{210,795.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(210,795.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,684$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,125.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29,125.3\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $91,528$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $202,359$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(9.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,362.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(212,362.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,150$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,678.5}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30,678.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $171,275$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $174,224$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,590.2}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(176,590.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $25,812$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,284.2}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(25,284.2\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $94,333$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $41,518$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(4.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,448.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,448.2\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,221$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(466 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,263.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,263.4\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,151$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,918$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,728.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 49.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,728.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,941$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(166 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,138.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,138.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,903$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,248$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,245.5}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(23,245.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,375$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(46.1 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,557.0}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,557.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,763$ on 2020-05-06