Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,781$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(4.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,112.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(52,112.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,339$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(577 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,151.0}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,151.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,711$ on 2020-05-06

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $220,325$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215,594.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(215,594.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,857$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(3.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,913.3}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.8)}}\) (asimptote \(24,913.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68,466$ on 2020-05-06

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $214,457$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{210,795.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(210,795.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,684$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,125.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29,125.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91,528$ on 2020-05-06

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $202,359$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(9.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,362.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(212,362.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,150$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,678.5}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30,678.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $171,275$ on 2020-05-06

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $174,224$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,590.2}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(176,590.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,812$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,284.2}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(25,284.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $94,333$ on 2020-05-06

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,518$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(4.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,448.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,448.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,221$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(466 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,263.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,263.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,151$ on 2020-05-06

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,918$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,728.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 49.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,728.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,941$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(166 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,138.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,138.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,903$ on 2020-05-06

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,248$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,245.5}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(23,245.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,375$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(46.1 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,557.0}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,557.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,763$ on 2020-05-06

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 96%
Luxembourg recovered 90%
Austria recovered 85%
Switzerland recovered 82%
Malta recovered 80%
Germany recovered 71%
Croatia recovered 66%
Andorra recovered 63%
North Macedonia recovered 60%
Denmark recovered 49%
Slovakia recovered 37%
Czechia recovered 35%
Spain recovered 33%
Italy recovered 15%
Romania recovered 3%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,799$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(366 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.29 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.4}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 22.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-05-06

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,851$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(639 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,699.8}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 30.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,699.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $98$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(15.3 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95.2}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 26.2)}}\) (asimptote \(95.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $301$ on 2020-05-06

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,684$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,121.7}{1 + 10^{-0.083 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(15,121.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $608$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(71.6 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{611.2}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(611.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,437$ on 2020-05-06

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,060$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(5.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,260.5}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 30.4)}}\) (asimptote \(29,260.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,805$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(171 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,800.6}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,800.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,555$ on 2020-05-06